The classic car market
Future classics: how they are picked, and the risks
By Jon Cosson · Last checked
Every year, insurers, magazines and price guides publish lists of cars they expect to be wanted in years to come. Some of their picks have done well; others have not. This page explains the qualities commentators look for, reports what the current published lists name, sets out the risks that can stop a "future classic" from becoming one, and considers what it all means if you are bidding at a general classic car auction.
In a hurry?
- Commentators look for the same qualities: limited production, homologation specials, hot hatches, the last of a line, manual gearboxes, an analogue driving experience, strong design and good original survivors.
- The best known UK list is Hagerty UK's annual Bull Market list. Its 2026 list, published in January 2026, named ten cars from a 1930s Riley to a 2000s Ferrari.
- Lists differ, and they date quickly. Treat every list as one commentator's view at one moment.
- The risks are real. London's ULEZ charges many petrol cars built before 2005 that are too young for the historic tax class; electronics can be hard to repair; fashions change.
- For a bidder, condition, originality and running costs matter more than any list.
- None of this is a recommendation. We report what others say.
How commentators pick future classics
Published lists and price guides tend to look for the same things.
- Limited production. Hagerty UK's 2025 list cited the limited production numbers of the Peugeot 106 Rallye (Octane, 7 January 2025). Auto Express, in its January 2026 future classics feature, said cars that were never common, or that are disappearing from the roads, tend to attract collectors.
- Homologation specials. Cars built in small numbers so that a manufacturer could go racing or rallying. Hagerty UK mentioned the 106 Rallye's homologation history, and Hagerty (US) has found that Generation X buyers favour homologation cars such as the Lancia Delta HF Integrale and Audi Sport Quattro.
- Hot hatches. Hagerty UK's Hot Hatch index was one of only two of its UK indices showing meaningful growth over 2025.
- The last of a line. Final versions of long-running models, or the last of an engine type, are often singled out.
- Manual gearboxes. Hagerty UK noted in 2025 that manual Ferrari F355s carry a premium of about 25% in its US price guide, and in 2026 that low-mileage manual F430s command more than paddle-shift cars.
- Analogue driving. Commentators value hydraulic steering, few driver aids and a sense of involvement. Hagerty UK picked the Alfa Romeo 147 GTA in 2025 for a driving experience out of proportion to its price.
- Design. Auto Express lists attractive styling, desirability and rarity as "pretty standard things to look for", along with innovative technology or design.
- Good survivors and low-mileage originals. Hagerty UK noted in 2025 that good original Range Rover P38s are becoming scarcer as many are broken for parts or heavily modified, and that originality matters for the Peugeot 106.
- Youngtimers. The FBHVC introduced a "youngtimer" category, for vehicles 20 to 30 years old, in its 2025 survey, as an entry point for newcomers.
Hagerty UK added a Collectability Index score, based on more than 20 weighted factors, to its 2026 list.
What the published lists name
Hagerty UK Bull Market list 2026 (published 11 January 2026)
Hagerty UK says the list names the cars it considers offer "the best combination of value for money and driveability", and that "these cars aren't those that necessarily will soar in value".
The ten cars, with Hagerty's five-year value change: Alfa Romeo Spider 2000 Veloce (down 8.6%); Ferrari F430 (up 19%); Ford Transit Mk1 2.0 petrol (up 6.2%); Mercedes-Benz SLK R171 (unchanged); MG MGA 1600 (down 10.7%); Porsche 911 996 Carrera 2 3.4 (down 2.2%); Riley Nine Imp (down 20%); Toyota Supra A80 (up 41.8%); Vauxhall Viva HC (down 23.2%); Volkswagen Golf GTI Mk2 8v (down 1.9%).
Hagerty UK Bull Market list 2025 (published January 2025)
Subaru Impreza P1; Austin-Healey 3000; Ferrari F355; Toyota RAV4 (first generation); Peugeot 106 Rallye; Porsche 912; Maserati Ghibli (1990s); Range Rover P38; Rolls-Royce Silver Shadow II; Alfa Romeo 147 GTA.
Other dated lists
- Hagerty (US) Bull Market list 2026 (8 December 2025), for the American market: Chevrolet Corvette Z06 (2006 to 2013), BMW M5 (2006 to 2010), Porsche Carrera GT, Mazda MX-5 (1999 to 2005), Nissan Skyline GT-R (1995 to 1998), Volkswagen Golf GTI VR6, Chevrolet 454 SS, Dodge Ramcharger, Alfa Romeo GTV (1969 to 1972), Dodge Charger (1968 to 1970) and Continental Mark II.
- Auto Express, Best future classic cars 2026 (15 January 2026): Alpine A110, Rover 75, Mercedes A-Class (W168), Alfa Romeo 156 GTA, Vauxhall VXR8, Jaguar F-Type, Abarth 124 Spider, Lexus LC, Lotus Elise S1 and BMW i3.
- Classic Cars magazine, Smart buys 2026 (Dan Sherwood; online, 2026, no publication date shown): Volvo 240, Lotus Elise S2 111S, Mercedes-Benz 190E 2.5-16, Audi Quattro 10v and Ferrari 308 GTB.
Ones to watch, as named by others
This table brings together the cars named by more than one source, or with a clear published reason. Every entry is the named commentator's view, not ours.
| Car | Named by | Their stated reason |
|---|---|---|
| Volkswagen Golf GTI Mk2 | Hagerty UK, January 2026 | 50th anniversary of the GTI in 2026; "great value for money"; marked rise in its Hot Hatch index over 12 months |
| Toyota Supra A80 | Hagerty UK, January 2026 | Largest five-year gain on its list; pop culture profile and small UK numbers |
| Porsche 911 (996) | Hagerty UK, January 2026 | Highest Collectability Index score on its list; "excellent value for money compared with any other 911" |
| Ferrari F430 | Hagerty UK, January 2026 | Good value next to its successor; part of a rise in Hagerty's Gold Index since Covid |
| Riley Nine Imp | Hagerty UK, January 2026 | Usable pre-war sports car after a fall of about 20% in five years |
| Alfa Romeo 147 GTA / 156 GTA | Hagerty UK, January 2025 (147); Auto Express, January 2026 (156) | Hagerty UK: an exceptional driving experience for a relatively sensible price (147); Auto Express: character few rivals match (156) |
| Lotus Elise | Auto Express, January 2026 (S1); Classic Cars magazine, 2026 (S2 111S) | Lightweight driving experience; values have risen more slowly than comparable cars |
| Peugeot 106 Rallye | Hagerty UK, January 2025 | Homologation history, limited numbers; originality matters |
| Range Rover P38 | Hagerty UK, January 2025 | Good originals scarcer as many are broken or modified |
The risks
The move to electric cars, and fuel
The government confirmed in April 2025 that sales of new petrol and diesel cars will end in 2030, with hybrids allowed until 2035. Older petrol cars can still be used, but commentators debate how fuel supply and attitudes may change. Ethanol is a nearer issue: since E10 became the standard grade in September 2021, E5 has been kept as a "protection grade" for older engines. The FBHVC reported in January 2026 that the government was due to review E5 availability in 2026. We found no announced outcome by 14 October 2026, and GOV.UK guidance (last updated 2 November 2022) still says E5 remains available as the super grade.
ULEZ and low emission zones
London's Ultra Low Emission Zone requires petrol cars to meet Euro 4 and diesel cars Euro 6, or pay a daily charge of £12.50, according to TfL. Sources differ on the cut-off year: Classic Cars magazine says petrol cars sold in the UK from January 2005 had to meet Euro 4, while the RAC (January 2026) generally treats petrol cars first registered after 2006 as compliant. Some earlier cars also meet the standard. The RAC confirmed the £12.50 daily charge in January 2026. Cars in the historic vehicle tax class are exempt, and the FBHVC says vehicles built before 1973 are exempt from London's ULEZ and LEZ regardless of tax class.
This leaves a gap that matters for future classics. A petrol car built between 1986 and about 2005 that is too young for the historic class and was not built to Euro 4 is charged each day it is driven in the zone. English clean air zones generally exempt the historic tax class. Scotland's low emission zones use a 30-year rule instead: the Scottish Government exempts vehicles at least 30 years old, no longer in production and kept in original condition. Check each zone before you travel.
Electronics and parts
Cars from the 1980s onwards rely on electronic control units, sensors and wiring that may be hard to repair. Footman James reported in January 2024 a specialist's view that "the ECUs are no longer available for the cars from the 1990s", and that stocks of parts were discarded once the cars became cheap used vehicles. FIVA, the international historic vehicle federation, raised the preservation of the "digital generation" of cars as early as 2016.
Complexity
Footman James also noted that some specialists consider modern classics harder to restore than older cars, and quoted a specialist saying that "some companies try to lock out anyone from working on their cars".
Fashion
Tastes change. Magneto reported in February 2026 that Lancia Delta Integrale prices had fallen from their 2023 peak, and Hagerty UK noted in January 2026 that Toyota Supra A80 values peaked in mid-2023 and have been relatively flat since. A film, a game or an anniversary can lift a model, and the effect can fade.
What this means for a Bangers & Cash bidder
- Buy what you enjoy. Hagerty UK says its own list is about value and drivability, not predicted gains, and Auto Express stresses choosing a car you will enjoy, since returns are not guaranteed.
- Condition and originality come first. Lists name models; the market pays for individual cars. Hagerty UK said of the Peugeot 106 Rallye in January 2025 that "originality is critical". See inspecting a classic car.
- Check where you will drive it. If you live in or visit a clean air zone, check a younger car's emissions standard before you bid.
- Count the running costs. Insurance, servicing, parts, storage and any emissions charges add up. See owning a classic and storage.
- Allow for the buyer's premium. See thinking of bidding? and recent auction results.
FAQs
- What is the Hagerty Bull Market list?
- It is an annual list of cars that Hagerty UK considers good value for their driving experience and ownership. The 2026 list was published on 11 January 2026. Hagerty says it is not a list of the cars expected to rise most in value.
- What makes a car a future classic?
- Commentators look for limited production, homologation specials, hot hatches, the last of a line, manual gearboxes, an analogue driving experience, strong design and good original survivors. None of these guarantees a car will rise in value.
- Are modern classics exempt from ULEZ?
- Only if they meet the standard or are in the historic tax class. TfL requires Euro 4 for petrol cars and Euro 6 for diesels. Many petrol cars built before 2005 that are too young for the historic class must pay the daily charge in London.
- What is a youngtimer?
- The FBHVC uses the term for vehicles 20 to 30 years old, a category it introduced in its 2025 National Historic Vehicle Survey as an entry point for newcomers.
- Should I buy a car from a future classics list as an investment?
- We do not give investment advice. Published lists are one commentator's view at one moment, and values can fall. Buy a car because you want to own it.
Sources
- Hagerty UK, 2026 Bull Market list (11 January 2026). (accessed 14 October 2026)
- Racecar.com, Hagerty UK reveals ten cars to watch in 2026 Bull Market List (13 January 2026). (accessed 14 October 2026)
- Octane (Matthew Hayward), Hagerty UK announces the 2025 Bull Market list (7 January 2025). (accessed 14 October 2026)
- Classic & Sports Car, 10 classic cars to buy in 2025 (Hagerty UK list). (accessed 14 October 2026)
- Hagerty (US) newsroom, Hagerty's 2026 Bull Market list of 11 appreciation-ready enthusiast cars (8 December 2025). (accessed 14 October 2026)
- Hagerty (US), The collector car world is in the midst of a generational transition (2023). (accessed 14 October 2026)
- Auto Express (Ryan Birch and others), Best future classic cars 2026 (15 January 2026). (accessed 14 October 2026)
- Classic Cars magazine (Dan Sherwood), Smart buys 2026: our top five classic cars to invest in now. (accessed 14 October 2026)
- Hagerty UK, Analysis of the classic and collectable car market in 2025 (16 December 2025). (accessed 14 October 2026)
- FBHVC, Britain's love of historic vehicles powers £7.3 billion boost to the UK economy (20 October 2025). (accessed 14 October 2026)
- FBHVC, A guide to UK clean air and low emissions zones. (accessed 14 October 2026)
- TfL, Ultra Low Emission Zone key fact sheet (January to March 2025). (accessed 14 October 2026)
- Classic Cars magazine, ULEZ and classic cars. (accessed 14 October 2026)
- mygov.scot, Vehicle exemptions for Low Emission Zones. (accessed 14 October 2026)
- GOV.UK, Backing British business: Prime Minister unveils plan to support carmakers (7 April 2025). (accessed 14 October 2026)
- GOV.UK, E10 petrol explained (updated 2 November 2022). (accessed 14 October 2026)
- RAC, Ultra Low Emission Zone: what you need to know (22 January 2026). (accessed 14 October 2026)
- V8 Register, FBHVC hopeful E5 will continue to be available (30 January 2026). (accessed 14 October 2026)
- Footman James, Running a modern classic (29 January 2024). (accessed 14 October 2026)
- Old Cars Weekly, Preserve the "digital generation" of classic vehicles (21 April 2016). (accessed 14 October 2026)
- Magneto, Iconic Auctioneers Race Retro 2026 review (24 February 2026). (accessed 14 October 2026)
Checked 14 October 2026 against Hagerty UK, Hagerty (US), Octane, Racecar.com, Auto Express, Classic Cars magazine, Classic & Sports Car, the FBHVC, TfL, the RAC, the Scottish Government, GOV.UK, the V8 Register, Footman James, Old Cars Weekly and Magneto.
An independent guide from Thornton-le-Dale. Not connected with Mathewsons or the programme.